Someone looking to sketch the factory of the future could easily get lost in visions of sci-fi fancy, from the production facility devoid of humans to the obsolescence of factories themselves and the creation of personalized manufacturing capabilities. Wild scenarios abound, and some will come true. But first will come the mundane improvements that delight few but please many.

I trust I won’t ruffle many feathers by saying that some manufacturers are not very good at forecasting demand for their products. There are numerous reasons for this, including too much reliance on historical data. In addition, financial pressures and risk aversion often conspire to make manufacturers poor weathermen, left wagging their thumbs in the air, calling for rain but too poor to buy a poncho. At the factory level, such pseudo-science translates into poor planning. Stockouts, expediting, and low customer satisfaction become the norm.

The good news is that the factory of the future won’t need to place its figurative thumb in the breeze. It will know what to produce. And the groundwork, mundane though it may be, is being laid today.

Take Walmart, for example. The world’s largest retailer announced last week that it will attach removable RFID tags to merchandise it receives from manufacturers and distributors and places on its shelves. It will use the information collected via the tags to keep its shelves stocked properly.

The Wall Street Journal article covering the RFID news included this quote from Raul Vazquez, the executive in charge of Walmart stores in the western United States:

“This ability to wave the wand and have a sense of all the products that are on the floor or in the back room in seconds is something that we feel can really transform our business.”

That’s great for Walmart, and the information should eventually trickle back to the manufacturer through Walmart’s Retail Link service or other channels, but the factory of the future will hear from Walmart’s shelves automatically. Picture: Real-time records of units sold enter your ERP system from Walmart, Best Buy, CVS, or any other node of your retail supply chain. An intelligent agent analyzes the replenishment implications. If, for instance, it’s late August and the sold units are beach chairs, the agent might decide not to issue a restock. If, instead, it is late May and 10 coolers just sold, imagine your ERP system communicating a new order to your MES and control system, which together coordinate the production schedule for the needed items, triggering your supply chain management system to plan the transportation events needed to get the order to its destination.

If you think that’s too far in the future, remember that the grunt work is being done today.