The last 20 years has seen a paradigm shift in the manufacturing world, as companies have moved from serving regionalized customer bases to exploiting markets and resources across the planet. The banking crisis put a temporary freeze on this transition. Now, as growth returns and companies start to invest again, the question becomes: Do we return to more of the same, or should we consider the credit crunch a boundary marking a new era in global manufacturing and supply network transformation?

It’s probably true that the key trends that launched a frenzy of globalization activity two decades ago continue to have an impact. As market barriers continue to recede, companies continue to expand their global reach. Availability of low-cost labor still drives offshoring and outsourcing decisions. In the supply chain’s vertical dimension; i.e., the various stages that exist between raw materials and the consumer, fragmentation continues as companies increasingly focus on narrower fields of competence. In its horizontal dimension;  i.e., the companies involved in the activities that make up the stages, consolidation is set to continue via M&A. And the impact of the information revolution is still being felt, with the advent of an ”internet of things” creating totally transparent supply chains. These trends have driven incredible change, and the story is certainly not over yet.

However, one might argue that these ongoing trends pale in significance against a new set of mega-drivers that are starting to emerge in the post-credit crunch picture. Global markets seem to have experienced a tipping point — from West to East, —the impact of which has not yet fully registered. As the dust settles, it may just become apparent that the so-called BRICs have not just caught up with the Western economies, but have seized the balance of power.

As one Indian industrialist recently stated: “India has changed from a pimply girl into an attractive young woman — the queue of potential suitors in lengthening.”

And it isn’t just the growing economies that are winning influence. Their indigenous companies, often criticized as too broadly spread and backward, are starting to take control, too. For example, the Indian conglomerate Tata has quietly become the largest manufacturing employer in the United Kingdom through its acquisitions of, among others, Jaguar-Land Rover, Corus, and Tetley in sectors as diverse as luxury cars, steel, and tea/coffee. Just imagine the potential impact of hundreds of ambitious Tatas emerging from India and China, bent on conquering global markets.

Another mega-trend just waiting to transform the picture is, of course, the sustainability agenda. Every company has sustainability in its mission statement, but very few know yet what it means. The winners here will be the ones that understand that every stage of the value chain will need revolutionizing if a company is to cope with the constraints of limited resources even as hundreds of millions of new consumers demand business expansion. This will necessitate a transformation of not just production and logistics networks, but of product design, process technology, and through-life support.

Seeing the next 20 years as a totally new era is vital for companies and countries trying to understand their strategies and positioning. There are likely to be only a few winners, many also-rans, and some notable losers in this new age of global manufacturing and supply networks.

Paul Christodoulou is a senior industrial fellow at the Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, UK, and a member of the Manufacturing Executive Leadership Board.